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Remotely sensed vegetation phenology drives large fires spreading in northwestern Europe

Tomás Quiñones , Cathelijne Stoof , Fiona Newman-Thacker, Adrián Jiménez, Fernando Bezares, Joaquim Ramirez, Adrián Cardil

Abstract

Background In recent years, an increase in the frequency of large fires has been reported in North West (NW) Europe, a region not widely represented in fire studies and where ecosystem processes are very different from those most studied, indicating the need to understand the drivers of hazardous fire behavior. Aims This study builds on recent efforts to characterize rate of spread variation in the region and delves into vegetation and weather drivers through remote sensing. Methods For 58 large fires in this region, we analyzed phenology (using the temporal variation of satellite-measured vegetation indices) and weather, (using as the Canadian Fire Weather Index System), Relation between was assessed as well as their capability of predicting rate of spread of fires. Key results Short-term vegetation greenness plays an important role in predicting rate of spread: Low greenness correlated non-linearly with high rate of spread, and fires spreading in the growing season described a drastic reduction in spread. Low levels of weather-related danger were correlated with high rate of spread. Conclusions In NW Europe, the integration of phenology into fire behavior analyses helps predicting rate of spread. By analyzing vegetation indices variation, we can estimate times when an ignition could generate fast-spreading fires. Contrary to expectations, high danger related to fire weather was associated with low spread. There is a mismatch between high fire weather danger and high spreading. Implications This study highlights the need for including timing of vegetation greenness in wildfire risk modelling and the need for a fire weather index systems tailored to regional conditions that relate to high-hazard fire behavior

WF24079  Accepted 01 May 2025

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